FCC chair: Mobile dead spots will end when space-based and ground comms merge

The chair of America's Federal Communications Commission (FCC) foresees a single network future where space-based comms will be integrated with terrestrial networks to ensure connectivity anywhere.

Jessica Rosenworcel was speaking as part of a discussion at the Princeton University Center for Information Technology Policy, New Jersey late last week.

Predicting the future is a dangerous business, she joked, and even smart people can get it wrong – really, really wrong. As examples, she noted McKinsey & Company's forecast in the 1980s that there would only be about 900,000 cellphones globally by the turn of the millennium, and she highlighted the claim by former Intel CEO Andrew Grove, who said: "the idea of a wireless personal communicator in every pocket is a pipe dream."

Satellites may be in our skies, but they are the anchor tenant in our communications future...

Rosenworcel's predictions are not really outlandish enough to embarrass her or the FCC, and the first isn't even a prediction, more of a principle: that communications should be available to all.

"In the past you saw this principle in our work to bring telephone service to every corner of the country. Today, you see it in initiatives to close the digital divide because we now know that access to broadband is essential – no matter who you are or where you live," she said.

The US has rolled out programs to push broadband support to where the infrastructure is lacking, such as in rural areas, said Rosenworcel. One such scheme, however, the Affordable Connectivity Program (ACP), was terminated just a few months back due to a funding shortfall, much to the annoyance of the FCC.

"Concentrating access to digital networks, skills, and production in a single population or a select geography is not viable," said Rosenworcel. "These are vital inputs in modern civic and economic life. We need them to reach all. This is about more than equity; it is about our economic and national security."

The second point made by the FCC chair will likely not surprise anyone who has been following the progress of Starlink and other organizations putting in place satellite-based broadband and phone connectivity.

"In the not-too-distant future, we will integrate space-based communications in our terrestrial networks, including in the mobile phone you have in your palm or pocket right now," said Rosenworcel.

"This will make it possible for every one of us to have a back-up connection in the skies when ground-based systems are unavailable or fail in disaster. If we do this, we can end mobile dead zones," she added, claiming the FCC is the first regulatory authority to adopt a framework for combining these services into what it calls supplemental coverage from space (SCS).

But she went further and said a single network future will need all network infrastructure – fiber, cellular, next-gen unlicensed wireless technology, and satellite broadband – seamlessly interoperating.

"To be clear, this vision does not work without satellites. The way I see it, satellites may be in our skies, but they are the anchor tenant in our communications future," Rosenworcel said.

This will call for in-orbit maintenance, assembly, and manufacturing capabilities, and means that policies over the next ten years will need to adapt to support services and protect against the downsides, such as orbital debris.

The next prediction from the FCC chair - inevitably - concerned AI. But rather than eulogize about its potential, Rosenworcel warned of the risks, including voice cloning and digital faking of people, as has already happened to President Biden.

This will only worsen as AI gets more advanced, she predicted, and said that rather than restrict speech or technology, the FCC is seeking to create the norm, both legally and socially, that when AI is being used, ordinary citizens deserve to know.

"For effective democracy, we need to commit to disclosing what is synthetic and what is not. We need to make transparency front and center."

On more familiar ground, the forth prediction is that the wireless industry will need "new spectrum and new models" in order to thrive.

"The challenge we face during the next decade is that we will see extraordinary increases in wireless traffic, but our airwaves are a finite resource. So what can we do to turn this spectrum scarcity into abundance?" Rosenworcel asked.

New tech will provide part of the answer, she said, mentioning developments such as cognitive radios, which can intelligently use radio channels to avoid interference and congestion, and MIMO transmitters and receivers.

Another part is to identify and repurpose underutilized spectrum, often from other federal authorities, and get them into the market for flexible, licensed commercial use, she said. Again, this is something that is already happening rather than a prediction for the future.

Finally, there will be a need for policies that can improve digital trust, Rosenworcel claimed.

"Right now, if you buy a television, thermostat, home security camera, or fitness tracker, the odds are it is connected to the internet," she stated, adding that during the next decade, these will multiply so that they could surpass a trillion connected devices, and these devices need to be secure.

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The FCC's answer is the Cyber Trust Mark.

"This is the first-ever voluntary cybersecurity labeling program supported by the United States. When this mark is displayed, it will mean that the device has been certified to meet cybersecurity standards."

It is envisaged that this will follow the cybersecurity criteria developed by the National Institute of Standards and Technology. Rosenworcel said the Commission is also building it on an existing model at the FCC for authorization of devices using radio frequency. "So we have both a framework for standards and a framework for execution."

Rosenworcel ended by quoting management consultant Peter Drucker, who said: "The best way to predict the future is to create it." Going by her predictions, it seems like the FCC has taken that one to heart. ®